Thursday, February 16, 2006

Two Polls is a Trend

Today's Boston Globe reports a UMass Lowell poll that has Attorney General Tom Reilly and Deval Patrick tied among Democratic primary voters. The poll showed both candidates at 40% with the remaining 20% undecided, and roughly a +/- 5% margin of error. This is more in line with the recent Suffolk University poll that had the two candidates within 9 points than previous polls that had Patrick trailing by as much as 50. The poll results pointed to the handling of Reilly's decision to tap Rep. Marie St. Fleur as his running mate as a possible reason for the drop:

Some 47 percent of those surveyed said they were "very" familiar with Reilly's failure to research St. Fleur's background and the uproar over her failure to pay taxes and debts. Another 34 percent said they were somewhat aware of the reports.

Fifty-six percent said the St. Fleur episode made it less likely that they would vote for Reilly, while 35 percent said the episode would have no effect.
Both Democratic candidates, however, were in statistical ties with Republican Kerry Healey, which could just reflect a bounce from her recent official announcement. Here are those numbers:

Kerry Healey42%
Tom Reilly43%

Kerry Healey38%
Deval Patrick40%

With Businessman Christy Mihos entering the race as a third party, however, the chances look better for Reilly, and about the same for Patrick:

Kerry Healey30%
Tom Reilly36%
Christy Mihos17%

Kerry Healey34%
Deval Patrick34%
Christy Mihos12%

It's interesting to point out that Mihos steals potential votes from both candidates, and at roughly the same rate.