Tuesday, January 02, 2007

Who is Persuadable?

The chart below shows all 62 legislators who voted in favor of the same-sex marriage ban at today's Constitutional Convention, along with the results from their 2006 general election. I've crossed out the six of them, who have been replaced by pro-marriage equality legislators. That leaves seven who must change their votes if the ban is to be defeated before going to a statewide ballot -- though it's really eight since Gale Candaras moved up to the Senate, replacing pro-marriage Republican Brian Lees.

Which of these leglislators is persuadable? It's not impossible for people to change their minds even on an issue as controversial as this. Enough changed their position to kill off the Travaglini-Lees amendment that would have banned marriage, but created civil unions. Who of these might respond to citizen pressure? Who might be willing to stave off a 2008 challenge in return for their vote? Who has their eye on an appointment and may be replaced in a special election? How else can we get this list down to 49?

Legislator2006 General Election Results
Bruce J. Ayers D-QuincyUnopposed
John J. Binienda D-WorcesterUnopposed
Christine E. Canavan D-BrocktonUnopposed
Gale D. Candaras D-WilbrahamReplaced by Angelo Puppolo
Mark J. Carron D-SouthbridgeReplaced by Geraldo Alicea
Paul C. Casey D-WinchesterUnopposed
Geraldine Creedon D-BrocktonUnopposed
Virginia Coppola R-FoxboroughReplaced by Jay Barrows
Robert Correia D-Fall River87% vs Libertarian
Sean Curran D-Springfield77% vs 2 candidates
Viriato Manuel deMacedo R-PlymouthUnopposed
Paul J. Donato D-MedfordUnopposed
Lewis G. Evangelidis R-Holden69% vs Nate Kaplan
James H. Fagan D-TauntonUnopposed
David L. Flynn D-BridgewaterUnopposed
John P. Fresolo D-WorcesterUnopposed
Paul K. Frost R-AuburnUnopposed
Colleen M. Garry D-DracutUnopposed
Susan W. Gifford R-Wareham57% vs Margaret A. Ishihara
Emile J. Goguen D-FitchburgReplaced by Stephen DiNatale
Shirley Gomes R-South HarwichReplaced by Sarah Peake
William G. Greene Jr. D-BillericaUnopposed
Robert S. Hargraves R-Groton60% vs Carol L. Bousquet
Donald F. Humason Jr. R-WestfieldUnopposed
Frank M. Hynes D-MarshfieldUnopposed
Michael F. Kane D-HolyokeUnopposed
Paul Kujawski D-WebsterUnopposed
William Lantigua D-Lawrence80% vs Marcos A. Devers (WI)
John A. Lepper R-Attleboro54% vs Kate M. Jackson
Paul J. Loscocco R-HollistonUnopposed
James R. Miceli D-WilmingtonUnopposed
James M. Murphy D-Weymouth71% vs Robert Montgomery Thomas
David M. Nangle D-LowellUnopposed
Robert J. Nyman D-Hanover63% vs Timothy M. Gillespie, Jr.
Shirley Owens-Hicks D-BostonReplaced by Willie Mae Allen
Marie J. Parente D-MilfordReplaced by John Fernandes
Jeffrey D. Perry R-SandwichUnopposed
George N. Peterson Jr. R-GraftonUnopposed
Thomas M. Petrolati D-LudlowUnopposed
Elizabeth A. Poirier R-North AttleboroUnopposed
Karyn E. Polito R-ShrewsburyUnopposed
Susan W. Pope R-WaylandReplaced by Thomas P. Conroy
Mary S. Rogeness R-LongmeadowUnopposed
Richard Ross R-WrenthamUnopposed
Michael F. Rush D-BostonUnopposed
Angelo M. Scaccia D-BostonUnopposed
Todd Smola R-PalmerUnopposed
Joyce A. Spiliotis D-Peabody69% vs Jason C. Harding
Walter F. Timilty D-MiltonUnopposed
A. Stephen Tobin D-QuincyUnopposed
Philip Travis D-RehobothReplaced by Steven D'Amico
James E. Vallee D-FranklinUnopposed
Anthony J. Verga D-GloucesterUnopposed
Brian P. Wallace D-BostonUnopposed
Daniel K. Webster R-Hanson52% vs Greg Hanley
Scott P. Brown R-WrenthamUnopposed
Robert S. Creedon D-BrocktonUnopposed
Robert L. Hedlund R-Weymouth64% vs Stephen A. Lynch
Richard T. Moore D-UxbridgeUnopposed
Michael W. Morrissey D-QuincyUnopposed
Steven C. Panagiotakos D-Lowell76% vs Brooks T. Lyman
Robert E. Travaglini D-BostonUnopposed