Yesterday, I asked who of the 62 legislators that voted in favor of banning same-sex marriage might be persuaded to switch their vote in the next Constitutional Convention. I'm not sure that anyone can answer that question now, so I sought out the answer to a different one. Who has the cash on hand to fend off a serious challenge and who would need to catch up on their fund raising? I checked the latest numbers from the Office of Campaign and Political Finance, which had the cash-on-hand for all the legislators as of about October 20th, 2006. This is before the last election, but I figure that this is a reasonable number to use until the year-end numbers come out (I believe they are due later this month). Since most of the legislators who voted against marriage equality were unopposed, it's reasonable to assume that they did not spend very much or raise very much between October and the November election.
This list differs from yesterday's in that it includes only members of the 2007-2008 General Court who voted yesterday for the amendment or are new and have indicated that they would vote for the amendment. Also, to figure out who might be vulnerable, I checked the year they were first elected to the body they currently serve in. In cases where the legislator had a gap in their service, I used the most recent election where they were not an incumbent. In addition, I added the margin of victory in both the 2006 primary and general elections, with "U" for unopposed.
Here's the new table:
| Legislator | Elected | '06 Pri | '06 Gen | Oct. $$ |
| Rep. Geraldo Alicea (D-Charlton) | 2006 | 31% | 55% | $941.32 |
| Rep. William G. Greene Jr. (D-Billerica) | 1992 | U | U | $1,164.48 |
| Rep. Brian P. Wallace (D-South Boston) | 2002 | U | U | $1,533.20 |
| Rep. Anthony J. Verga (D-Gloucester) | 1994 | U | U | $2,723.79 |
| Rep. Paul C. Casey (D-Winchester) | 1988 | U | U | $3,696.17 |
| Rep. Fred "Jay" Barrows (R-Mansfield) | 2006 | U | 51% | $4,278.21 |
| Rep. Robert Correia (D-Fall River) | 1976 | 69% | 87% | $4,396.98 |
| Rep. Paul K. Frost (R-Auburn) | 1996 | U | U | $5,583.03 |
| Rep. William Lantigua (D-Lawrence) | 2002 | U | 80% | $5,975.41 |
| Sen. Richard T. Moore (D-Uxbridge) | 1996 | U | U | $6,112.28 |
| Rep. Robert J. Nyman (D-Hanover) | 1998 | U | 63% | $6,387.70 |
| Rep. Elizabeth A. Poirier (R-North Attleboro) | 1998 | U | U | $6,395.47 |
| Rep. Michael F. Rush (D-West Roxbury) | 2002 | U | U | $6,561.22 |
| Rep. Walter F. Timilty (D-Milton) | 1998 | U | U | $6,572.05 |
| Rep. Colleen M. Garry (D-Dracut) | 1994 | U | U | $7,041.13 |
| Sen. Gale D. Candaras (D-Wilbraham) | 2006 | 46% | 60% | $7,586.19 |
| Rep. Sean Curran (D-Springfield) | 2004 | U | 77% | $7,874.21 |
| Rep. David L. Flynn (D-Bridgewater) | 1998 | U | U | $8,310.83 |
| Rep. Geraldine Creedon (D-Brockton) | 1994 | U | U | $9,547.62 |
| Rep. Linda Campbell (D-Methuen) | 2006 | 32% | 61% | $10,263.79 |
| Rep. Viriato Manuel deMacedo (R-Plymouth) | 1998 | U | U | $12,979.15 |
| Rep. Paul Kujawski (D-Webster) | 1994 | 62% | U | $12,989.25 |
| Rep. Christine E. Canavan (D-Brockton) | 1992 | U | U | $13,395.37 |
| Rep. Daniel K. Webster (R-Hanson) | 2002 | U | 52% | $14,486.22 |
| Rep. George N. Peterson Jr. (R-Grafton) | 1994 | U | U | $14,565.76 |
| Rep. Michael F. Kane (D-Holyoke) | 2000 | U | U | $16,076.96 |
| Rep. Joyce A. Spiliotis (D-Peabody) | 2002 | 53% | 69% | $16,415.46 |
| Rep. Donald F. Humason Jr. (R-Westfield) | 2002 | U | U | $18,102.14 |
| Rep. Todd Smola (R-Palmer) | 2004 | U | U | $18,878.60 |
| Rep. Richard Ross (R-Wrentham) | 2004 | U | U | $21,683.43 |
| Rep. John A. Lepper (R-Attleboro) | 1994 | U | 54% | $22,679.75 |
| Rep. Jeffrey D. Perry (R-Sandwich) | 2002 | U | U | $23,915.91 |
| Rep. David M. Nangle (D-Lowell) | 1998 | U | U | $27,448.52 |
| Rep. Susan W. Gifford (R-Wareham) | 2002 | U | 57% | $27,783.67 |
| Rep. James R. Miceli (D-Wilmington) | 1976 | U | U | $29,208.94 |
| Rep. James M. Murphy (D-Weymouth) | 2001 | U | 71% | $33,963.74 |
| Rep. Paul J. Loscocco (R-Holliston) | 2000 | U | U | $35,764.74 |
| Rep. John P. Fresolo (D-Worcester) | 1998 | 57% | U | $35,995.58 |
| Rep. Lewis G. Evangelidis (R-Holden) | 2002 | U | 69% | $39,995.60 |
| Sen. Robert S. Creedon (D-Brockton) | 1996 | U | U | $44,337.48 |
| Rep. James H. Fagan (D-Taunton) | 1992 | U | U | $44,666.03 |
| Sen. Scott P. Brown (R-Wrentham) | 2004 | U | U | $45,255.05 |
| Rep. Mary S. Rogeness (R-Longmeadow) | 1990 | U | U | $48,460.63 |
| Rep. Angelo M. Scaccia (D-Readville) | 1980 | U | U | $49,822.45 |
| Rep. Bruce J. Ayers (D-Quincy) | 1998 | U | U | $50,432.40 |
| Rep. Frank M. Hynes (D-Marshfield) | 1982 | U | U | $50,685.46 |
| Rep. Robert S. Hargraves (R-Groton) | 1994 | U | 60% | $55,873.13 |
| Rep. Paul J. Donato (D-Medford) | 2000 | U | U | $63,612.21 |
| Rep. James E. Vallee (D-Franklin) | 1994 | U | U | $72,061.04 |
| Rep. A. Stephen Tobin (D-Quincy) | 1988 | U | U | $72,631.34 |
| Rep. Angelo Puppolo (D-Springfield) | 2006 | 91% | 59% | $76,822.41 |
| Sen. Steven C. Panagiotakos (D-Lowell) | 1996 | U | 76% | $83,125.10 |
| Rep. Karyn E. Polito (R-Shrewsbury) | 2000 | U | U | $136,654.03 |
| Sen. Robert L. Hedlund (R-Weymouth) | 1994 | U | 64% | $141,811.65 |
| Sen. Michael W. Morrissey (D-Quincy) | 1992 | U | U | $303,787.02 |
| Rep. Thomas M. Petrolati (D-Ludlow) | 1986 | U | U | $312,827.71 |
| Rep. John J. Binienda (D-Worcester) | 1986 | U | U | $314,528.46 |
| Sen. Robert E. Travaglini (D-East Boston) | 1992 | U | U | $334,136.66 |
A couple things jump out right away. First of all, some incumbents have been very lazy about raising money. This does not mean that they would be easy to defeat, but it does mean we can force them to fundraise. I am sure that Reps Greene, Wallace, Verga and Casey would rather not risk being outspent should a challenger emerge. If they could avoid the tedium of fundraising and campaigning by switching their vote, would they?
Another thing is that some of the people who won crowded primaries this year might be vulnerable in a two-person race in 2008. Do new Reps Alicea and Campbell relish another fight that might be avoided by voting no at the next Constitutional Convention?
2008 will be too late for defeating these legislators to make any difference in the fate of the marriage ban amendment. But if we can put pressure on them by recruiting challengers where we think it will make a difference, perhaps we can change some votes that way.
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