My anonymous source in Washington has again sent me the newest version of the National Journal's 2008 Republican Insiders Poll. This time, they asked over 100 Republican insiders -- Congressmen and other political types -- to rank potential candidates' chances of winning their party's presidential nomination. I commented on the April '05 and December '05 editions of the insiders poll, where our now lame-duck Governor, Mitt Romney ranked fifth and third respectively. This time, held steady at third, behind Senators John McCain and George Allen, who switched places since December. Here are the top ten on the Republican side, according to those inside the Beltway, from the poll (PDF):
Rank | Candidate | % First Place Votes |
1. | John McCain | 61% |
2. | George Allen | 19% |
3. | Mitt Romney | 10% |
4. | Rudy Giuliani | 4% |
5. | Bill Frist | 1% |
6. | Newt Gingrich | 0% |
7. | Condoleezza Rice | 0% |
8. | Mike Huckabee | 1% |
9. | Haley Barbour | 1% |
10. | George Pataki | 1% |
"Private businessman who got Massachusetts, of all places, to do health care vouchers. The jury's still out on the religion question."As far as real people go, Romney is also getting beat by Senator McCain (and 'Undecided' for that matter) according to state primary polls put out by American Research Group, (via Political Intelligence). Notably, Romney does better in Utah than he does in Massachusetts.
"It's an advantage to be running from outside the Beltway in an anti-Washington year."
"Mitt has everything it takes -- ideas, charisma, polish. But can someone who won over voters of the most liberal state also win over conservatives? Seems unlikely."
Fellow potential 2008 candidate John Kerry did better with the insiders this time around, going from eighth in December to sixth now. He managed to get at least one first-place vote. Here's what one insider had to say about Senator Kerry:
"Has shown remarkable resilience. Now the hard part: convincing Democrats to overcome their collective fascination with inexperienced 'fresh-face' candidates."Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) once again towers over the rest of the Democratic field, with former governor Mark Warner and former Senator John Edwards coming in distant second and third.
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