More Poll Woes for Mitt

The Boston Globe is reporting yet another early poll that has Romney coming up short against Democratic frontrunner Tom Reilly. In addition, this is the first poll that I've seen that shows that Massachusetts residents do not want Mitt to run for president:

Who would you vote for ... Mitt Romney or Tom Reilly?

Tom Reilly	48%
Mitt Romney	41%

Do you think Mitt Romney should be reelected governor in 2006?

Someone Else	50%
Reelect	32%
Don't Know	18%

Should Governor Romney run for president in 2008?

Should Not	53%
Should	28%
Don't Know	19%

Of course the only poll that really matters is still over a year and a half away. The real story again is that Romney is consistently coming up short in the early polling. At no point has Romney polled higher than the low forties in any matchup against Tom Reilly. He also has yet to break 50% in any reported matchup against anyone. This can't be good news for a sitting governor. If his polling numbers stay this flat by the summer, Mitt will have to make a decision. Can he risk losing in 2006 if he wants to win in 2008? Personally, I think his ego will not let him retire and he especially doesn't want to give up the reins of any part of his financing network in the runup to a presidential campaign. In addition, the good news for the governor in this poll, like in the previous ones we've discussed here is that Romney's favorability ratings are still high relative to his re-elect numbers.

Candidate	Favorable	Neutral	Unfavorable	Don't Know Enough
Mitt Romney	52%	8%	37%	3%
Tom Reilly	53%	12%	14%	21%
Bill Galvin	37%	15%	9%	40%
Deval Patrick	11%	7%	5%	78%

Romney's numbers don't have a lot of room to change unless people start reevaluating their own opinions of him. The Democrats, however, all have very low unfavorable numbers and comparatively high "don't know enough" numbers. Romney's job in the next year is to turn those don't know's into unfavorables for his potential opponents. Given the Democrats' natural advantages in Massachusetts, the most likely course of action for Mitt, should he decide to run for reelection, would be a mostly negative campaign with the intention of convincing Democrats and Democratic leaning Independents to stay home.