Thursday, May 12, 2005

New State House News Poll

Regular readers of this blog will know that I can't resist a brand new poll. There's just something so comforting about all those numbers lined up in all those tidy little columns. The lead story in the newest State House News Poll is that Massachusetts residents across-the-board seem to support Romney's Death Penalty bill. The poll also asked questions on the 2006 elections, and on 2008. Romney continues to post mediocre re-elect and approval numbers, while his favorablity rating is in the low 50s.

Here are the head-to-head poll results, with the March results in parentheses.

If the candidates in next year's general election for governor were Mitt Romney and [CHALLENGER] and the election were being held tomorrow, for whom would you vote?
ChallengerRomneyDon't KnowNeither
Bill Galvin41.9%(44.1%)40.7%(41.2%)11.2%(12.5%)6.2%(2.0%)
Deval Patrick33.6%(32.9%)45.8%(45.5%)12.9%(14.5%)7.6%(6.8%)
Tom Reilly48.3%(49.1%)37.8%(39.6%)7.7%(8.7%)6.3%(2.4%)
The big story here is that there's no story at all. The numbers haven't changed despite Patrick's official announcement and two months of Romney running for president -- Reilly still wins by ten points, Galvin is roughly tied and Patrick is still behind. Sometimes it's easy to lose perspective when you follow the day-to-day details of a campaign. In the real world, no one is paying much attention. Or are they? Here are the results for the Democratic primary:
Tom Reilly32.6%41.5%
Bill Galvin7.0%10.5%
Chris Gabrieli5.8%5.1%
Deval Patrick5.8%3.2%
Don't Know44.2%36.4%

So, if anything has happened, Democrats who were previously committed to Tom Reilly are now keeping a more open mind. While Reilly still has the momentum, this is not a trend that he's going to want to see continue. Unfortunately for Patrick, he may not be the beneficiary of the undecideds. In a one-on-one primary, the poll shows he loses to Reilly 53.5% to 11% with only 31.4% undecided.