Insiders on Romney

Political Wire has some information about an 'Insiders Poll' done by the National Journal handicapping potential 2008 Presidential candidates. Eighty-five Republicans and Ninety Democrats were asked to rank their top five choices for their side. Care to guess where our beloved governor ranked? From the article (PDF):

Rank	Candidate	Points	First-Place Votes
1.	George Allen	229	(19)
2.	John McCain	217	(19)
3.	Bill Frist	184	(11)
4.	Rudy Giuliani	129	(8)
5.	Mitt Romney	109	(5)
6.	Haley Barbour	93	(6)
7.	Jeb Bush	61	(6)
8.	Condoleezza Rice	56	(3)
9.	Chuck Hagel	36	(3)
10.	George Pataki	34	(2)

Not too bad, considering where Romney ranked among actual human beings back in March. Among the party elite, Mitt even does better than Jeb! and Condi -- never mind that they have said they're not running. The article itself didn't spend much time on Romney, but they did have this to say:

On Mitt Romney: "Good-looking, rich, but can a one-term Massachusetts governor get there from here? Doubtful."

Of course, you didn't need to be an insider to figure that out.

Interestingly enough, on the Democratic side, Senator John Kerry also finished fifth, though he only got two first place votes (Senator Hillary Clinton was number one with 68 first place votes). On John Kerry:

"Kerry had his shot, he blew it, and there won't be a second chance. Kerry will come to his senses and not run in '08."

No disagreement there, either. I imagine Kerry will toy with the idea of running, but in the end he'll be content to use his contact lists and campaign warchest to play kingmaker.

Death: Romney's New Priority

I was all set to talk about Governor Romney's recent push to reinstate the death penalty, but then I realized that Cape Cod Works said almost exactly what I wanted, better than I could have phrased it.

Governor Romney, finally returning from campaign appearances in other states, has unveiled his new initiative to solve what ails us in Massachusetts.

A foolproof death penalty bill.

Hmmmmm. As I have worked through the last months or so, I've come across a bunch of problems I had hoped the state legislature and governor were working on: how to cover the 540,000 Massachusetts residents who have no health insurance; how to help the towns on Cape Cod avoid massive and major budget overrides; drug treatment diversions from the criminal justice/incarceration system; how to get free lunches to low income kids once they're out of school for the summer; the vanishing affordable housing on Cape Cod and in Massachusetts; and plenty more.

And it's true. What pressing problem does the death penalty solve in Massachusetts? Not to be glib, but are we really facing an epidemic of deadly acts of terrorism, killing sprees or murders involving torture? Why would Romney bring this up now, if not to bolster his conservative bona fides before 2008? Compare this to what Romney said about his priorities this year in his radio ad campaign (mp3):

This can be another year of action in the legislature. You'll be hearing me on the radio talking about my ideas like market-based health insurance for everyone. We can create great schools by finishing the job of education reform. And we can make Massachusetts a truly job-friendly state.

Notice the lack of the death penalty among his priorities. Notice also how it is not even tangentially related to any of them, unless you count the fact that prisoners who are executed will no longer need health insurance.

If the past two years is any indication, Governor Romney will send out a couple more press releases, yap about it on the airwaves and then, after being repudiated by the legislature, he'll promptly forget about it and move on to something else -- never quite having accomplished more than a Powerpoint presentation and a press conference.

Deval Patrick In Cambridge

Blue Mass Group has a very thorough rundown of Deval Patrick's recent speech in Cambridge. Charley even gives a blow-by-blow of the question and answer session. Here's a sample:

Concerning universal health care: What's different this time from the Clinton plan years?

Patrick mentioned the complexity of the Clinton plan, but more to the point is that all the other players in health care, not just consumers, are dissatisfied. And even if you have insurance, it's a hassle. Patrick spoke of his recently deceased mother's difficulties with getting reimbursed for care. Single payer care is unrealistic in the short-term, but he said he's willing to spend political capital on major health care reform: "If I don't get it done in my first term, throw me out."

The rest is a great read, and Patrick even talks about his experiences at Coke. Check it out.

Pollin' Pollin' Pollin'

There's more bad news for Governor Romney in the most recent Bay State Poll. The Eagle-Tribune has the story:

Gov. Mitt Romney's approval rating has dipped to its lowest point in more than a year-and-a-half, according to a statewide poll conducted over the last two weeks.

Only about 43 percent of participants in the survey said they approved of how Romney is handling his job as governor, down sharply from 56 percent in early February and the lowest since the Bay State Poll began tracking public opinion in November 2003.

So, why has it dropped so far? The answer, if my armchair analysis is correct, can be found in the disconnect between these two numbers:

Will Romney Run for President in 2008?

Very Likely	24.9%
Somewhat Likely	41.3%
Not Very Likely	26.8%
Don't know/Refused (Vol)	7.0%

Should Romney Run for President in 2008?

Yes	27.2%
No	60.6%

In other words, most Bay Staters think Mitt should not run for president, but even more think it's at least somewhat likely that he will. This tells a bit of a different story than the numbers in February, which suggested (at least to me) that voters didn't really care if Romney ran for President. I suppose two months of Romney stumping in preparation of '08 were enough to turn some people against him.

The poll also asked about the Democratic Gubernatorial Primary:

Secretary of State William Galvin	8.1%
Attorney General Thomas Reilly	21.3%
Former US Assistant Attorney General Deval Patrick	4.0%
Somebody Else	35.5%
Don't know/Refused (Vol)	31.1%

While Reilly might take some comfort in being fairly far out ahead of his competition, this poll shows that two-thirds of the electorate is undecided. At this early date, it looks like anyone could win the Democratic nomination. If "somebody else" is still polling high in the next poll, it would not surprise me to see another candidate jump in to grab the brass ring. Chris Gabrielli could fund his own candidacy, and Joe Kennedy or Mike Capuano might reconsider.

Julie Teer's New Job

Last week, Governor Romney named former Bush campaign spokeswoman Julie Teer to replace Shawn Feddeman, who left for the private sector. Teer was the communications director for the New Hampshire GOP during the 2003-2004 primaries. Romney has, understandably, taken some criticism from Democrats for hiring someone from an important primary state with presidential campaign experience.

"It is no coincidence that Gov. Romney has a press spokesperson with presidential campaign experience," state Democratic Party spokeswoman Jane Lane said, referring to Romney's newest spokeswoman, Julie Teer. Lane predicted Romney will use Teer for his "presidential campaign."

Such criticism, I think, misses the bigger picture. Teer's job during the runup to the Democratic presidential primary in New Hampshire was to issue press releases attacking the Democratic nominees, and generally wreaking as much havoc as possible with the purpose of making sure the process produced the weakest Democratic candidate possible. That way, the President could keep his hands clean until after the Democratic nomination was secured.

Romney didn't just hire Teer for his own presidential ambitions, but to do the same to the Massachusetts Democrats as she did to the national Democrats. Look for her to sew discord during the 2006 gubernatorial primary. She will be tasked with responding to any criticism leveled at Romney by Deval Patrick, Tom Reilly, or anyone else seeking the Democratic nomination.

UPDATE: Chimes at Midnight rightfully takes me to task for forgetting that Teer was the Republican in charge of communications for the one state that the Republicans won in 2000 but lost in 2004. Not only that, but the Republican incumbant governor was unseated. We can only hope she follows up with a repeat performance here in Massachusetts in 2006.

Middlesex County DA Roundup

When Attorney General Tom Reilly finally announces his currently unofficial gubernatorial run, he will set into motion some political dominoes, particularly in Middlesex County. Current Middlesex County District Attorney, Martha Coakley, has already announced that she's seeking Reilly's position as soon as he makes his own campaign official.

That leaves a scramble for Coakley's position as DA. As of now, State Reps Peter Koutoujian (D-Waltham) and Michael Festa (D-Melrose) along with State Senator Jarrett Barrios (D-Cambridge) have all announced that they're running, pending Coakley's decision. They would all have to step down from their current seats to do so, as would the other legislators who have been rumored to be interested in the DA's job including State Senator Cynthia Creem (D-Newton) and Reps Charles Murphy (D-Burlington) and David Linsky (D-Natick). Personally, I'm high on all three candidates. Festa gave a good speech last week and he was very friendly to me at a DSC meeting I went a few months back. Koutoujian made a good impression when I saw him at the Watertown Library groundbreaking. He is also about 20 feet tall. As for Barrios, I think that he really understands the problems with the Democratic party both here and nationally. That's kind of why I was hoping he'd stay in the Senate rather than try to move to the DA's office.

If all goes as planned, we can expect open seats in the 10th Middlesex, which covers parts of Newton, Waltham and a precinct in West Watertown; the 32nd Middlesex, which covers all of Melrose and parts of Wakefield; and the Middlesex, Suffolk and Essex State Senate district which insanely covers parts of Cambridge, Everett, Somerville, Charlestown, Allston, Brighton, Chelsea, Revere and Saugus. None of these races was competitive last year, though Mike Festa was challenged by a Republican who he beat by a two-to-one margin.

A high-profile competition for Middlesex County DA, as well as the open seats, could have repercussions for the governor's race. High turnout in Middlesex County could be good news for Tom Reilly, who's been winning elections there for years. Conversely, a strong showing by Jarrett Barrios could bring the kind of activists to the polls who might find Deval Patrick appealing. As for the general election, the impact would depend on the state Republicans and whether they field candidates -- either for DA or the legislature. Given that Romney is unlikely to want to repeat the 2004 performance of "Team Reform" and the state GOP's recent track record in the special elections, there is a good chance that several of these races could be decided long before November.

Mitt's Numbers Sink Even Lower

The internals aren't out yet, but the Globe's Scot Lehigh has the results of the latest UMass poll on the governor's race. Things look even worse for the governor in the early going.

Question: Does Romney deserve to be reelected governor or is it time for a change?

	April	January
Deserves to be reelected	33%	43%
Time for a change	50%	49%

Head-to-Head

	Challenger	Romney
Tom Reilly	44%	36%
Deval Patrick	27%	36%

This is the lowest we've seen Romney poll against anyone. The Reilly and Patrick numbers are about where we've seen them before, so what seems to have happened is that Romney managed to turn off people he was appealing to as recently as January. I think that Lehigh has the right idea when he links this to Romney's recent out-of-state campaigning in advance of 2008. Romney seems to have mentally checked out of a job he was never particularly interested in in the first place. Not only that, but as he touts his record as a social conservative in South Carolina and Missouri, the social moderates back home start to wonder if Mitt is really the guy they want representing them.

To counter this, Romney is trying to puff up his record with radio ads touting his accomplishments. I haven't yet heard one, but I can only guess that they're pretty short spots.

Kennedy Debuts His New Site

As reported by MyDD.com and the Blue Mass Group, Ted Kennedy debuted his new website this week -- TedKennedy.com. I was involved in the conference call with the Senator on Monday where he announced that he wanted his site to be a clearinghouse for information on what's going on in the Senate, and particularly a place to find out more about the 'nuclear' option -- the Republican scheme to turn the Senate into a rubber stamp for Bush's judicial appointees. Kennedy's site should serve as a nice complement to Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid's "war room" at Democrats.Senate.gov.

The conference call itself was a little surreal. Here is one of the longest serving US Senators, a bunch of the lefty blogosphere's heaviest hitters and little old me. The fact that I -- a nobody living in Watertown -- was invited to participate after only a few months of blogging says as much to me about his commitment to the netroots than any webpage. Senator Kennedy gave a quick rundown of the ways that the Republicans are trying to squelch dissent in the Senate, and in Congress in general, and then took questions.

One thing that the Senator did not emphasize was what we here in Massachusetts could do if we wanted to stop the 'nuclear' option. After all, our Senators certainly don't need any convincing -- Kerry is already on the record as being vehemently opposed to it. He said we should continue to follow the situation closely and, in particular, spread the word.

It's too early to say, but it seems like the Democratic message is getting out. Harry Reid was on the Ed Schultz Show today saying that the Republicans don't have the votes yet, or else they'd have gone nuclear already. Rick Santorum is apparently privately arguing for a delay in light of some recent GOP internal polling that shows the public is against the Senate rule changes. Still, the Judiciary committee has already approved (along partisan lines of course) three of the ten judges that were rejected in the last Senate session. If these judges are truly objectionable, any delay by the Republicans would just give the Democrats more time to explain to the public why they are unfit for the bench and what the consequences of approving them would be.

Finally!

The Mass Dems blog is live. They had been promising they would start this for over a month now, always saying "sometime next week."

A weblog, I think, is an essential and low-overhead tool to give people a sense of ownership in the party. It remains to be seen, though, whether the Dems will use this as a two-way communication tool or a one-way communication tool. The state GOP is already using their email list to send out talking points, it's a good sign to see the Democrats also embracing the netroots.

Anyway, welcome to the neighborhood!

It's, Like, Really Gross!

Dan Kennedy has the story of how the anti-gay Article 8 Alliance is getting Bay Windows banned at local supermarkets. For those who don't know, Bay Windows is the Boston Area's weekly gay and lesbian newspaper and as the Herald reports Shaws and Stop & Shop have stopped carrying it due to sexual content in the personals section. Stop & Shop, at least, seems willing to distribute copies of the paper without the personal ads. That seems fair to me, but it's not enough for Brian Camenker, director of the Article 8 Alliance

From the Herald Article:

"The ads were just part of it," Camenker said.

"They're really sort of disgusting, anti-family, anti-religion. The paper is full of, like, really gross stuff," Camenker said.

I think the Article 8 Alliance is really on to something here. I hereby demand that Shaws and Stop & Shop stop selling the following items, as I find them, like, really gross:

• Brussels Sprouts
• Bananas
• Dessert Tofu, particularly the Key Lime
• Spray Cheeze
• Flavored Water
• White Zinfandel
• The entire feminine hygiene aisle (sorry ladies, but c'mon!)
• Peanut butter and jelly mixed together. It is unnatural.

Also, I think those lobsters present a very anti-family message! Crawling nude all over each other in that tiny tank. If Shaws and Stop & Shop can't house their lobsters like nature intended -- one male and one female in each tank until they are eaten -- I'm afraid I'll have to organize a boycott.

Not Worth the Price

I had heard that Governor Romney's book Turnaround was 'fairly awful' but I didn't realize that it sold so poorly he needed to give it away to unsuspecting Utahns:

Nearly 1,000 people attended Romney's later speech, all of them invited guests and customers of Zions Bank. All took home a copy of Romney's book, "Turnaround: Crisis, Leadership and the Olympic Games." The 377-page book chronicles Romney's rescue of the Salt Lake Organizing Committee and the 2002 Olympic Winter Games from the brink of scandal and financial ruin.

Zions bought the books from Romney in lieu of paying him a speaker's fee.

The above was taken from a Globe article detailing yet another one of Mitt's trips out of state, this time a return trip to Utah. It's too bad, seeing as he missed a beautiful Patriot's Day here in Massachusetts. Almost like clockwork now, when public sector employees have a three day weekend, Romney can be found out of state, stumping in front of Republican true believers. How can the governor claim to be promoting Massachusetts when, at the same time, he's clamoring to get out of here as soon as the five o'clock whistle blows?

But He's Still a Fraud, Right?

Sad news for the Massachusetts blogosphere today as the Romney is a Fraud blog announced that it is going on hiatus.

MDF Convention Report

On Saturday, Massachusetts Democratic Future, the local chapter of Young Democrats of America had its annual Leadership Convention at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. The purpose of the convention, near as I could gather was more networking (for the attendees) and campaigning (for the speakers) than anything else. I suppose most of these things are.

The main reason I was there was that it gave me a chance to see both Tom Reilly, who I had yet to see in person and Deval Patrick, who I hadn't seen since his official announcement. Other elected officials speaking were Sen. Jarrett Barrios (D-Somerville), Middlesex County DA Martha Coakley, Rep. Michael Festa (D-Melrose), and a panel featuring Reps. Jennifer Flanagan (D-Leominster), Jamie Eldridge (D-Acton) and Steve Canessa (D-New Bedford). Several others made appearances but did not speak, including two 2006 candidates for Lieutenant Governor: Deb Goldberg and Sam Kelly (if memory serves).

First to speak was Senator Barrios. He gave a speech out of the George Lakoff playbook. That is, the Democrats don't need to move to the left or move to the right, they just need to talk about their values in simple terms. The Republicans simply have a better, or at least better defined, brand -- even here in Massachusetts. He bases much of what he says on the work he did on the Election Outreach committee last year. If you haven't had a chance to look at the committee's reports yet, they are well done and well researched. The Recapturing the Corner Office (PDF) report is something I've been meaning to comment on for months now, but just haven't had the time.

Attorney General Tom Reilly sound very much like a declared candidate for governor. I'm not sure that he's made any official statement, but at this point if he did, it wouldn't even be "news" since it's been talked about so much already. He was a few minutes late, having been in an Honor Guard for Suffolk County prosecutor David Connolly, who was killed in Iraq last week. Reilly spoke briefly on this, his thoughts a little scattered in light of the emotional content. Reilly hit his stride later, while giving what I'm sure is his typical "I'm Tom Reilly and this is my story" schpiel. If you don't know his history, Boston Magazine had a good article on him a few years ago and his story is one that a lot of Bay Staters can probably relate to. he talked a lot about his accomplishments, and mentioned his campaign themes of 'personal responsibility' and 'merit' among others. At the end, in a clear challenge to the governor, he mentioned that he had never lost a race and didn't plan to start.

Next was a panel on "Running Young and Winning" which featured three Democratic state legislators who ran young and won. They each told their stories of how they got involved and described their experiences being often the youngest people in the room. Personally, I would have rather had the emphasis on "winning" rather than "running" as none of the panelists said much about what made their campaigns successful other than the usual door knocking and having top-notch staff. One thing they mentioned they did not use was the Internet -- something I hope changes in future elections.

Deval Patrick spoke next on the same themes I had heard him talk about previously, though this time in a prepared statement. I'll forgive Patrick for reading his speech since he only announced last week, but at some point he should really commit it to memory -- especially since I find him much better than Reilly when speaking extemporaneously. To their credit, though, neither Patrick nor Reilly criticized the other, saving their barbs for Governor Romney. Patrick was asked about Romney's recent attack and said, in his defense, that when you include property taxes, his taxes had actually gone up under Romney. He also repeated his point that we shouldn't be talking about taxes before we talk about what we want government to do. It's a fair point. People trust Republicans to cut taxes and Democrats to keep services. If the candidates are talking about services rather than taxes, the Democrat naturally comes out on top.

During the break, MassEquality played a teaser to Saving Marriage, a documentary about the fight for equal marriage rights in Massachusetts. The movie should be coming out later this year. I would hope that people on the fence about this issue would see it with an open mind, as it really puts a face to the struggle for gay marriage.

Martha Coakley spoke after another breakout session. She was actually a lot better than advertised. I've heard generally poor reviews of her speaking style in the past, but I would have to disagree given what I saw on Saturday. Either she's stepping up her rhetorical skill as she runs for state Attorney General, or I just had low expectations that she easily exceeded. One thing that stood out in her remarks was a comment that Massachusetts police departments could leverage the strong biotech industry in public-private partnerships. This could make it easier for cash-strapped police departments to do things like run DNA tests, for example.

Michael Festa, a current Rep. from Melrose spoke last. He's running for Middlesex County DA, Coakley's current job and Tom Reilly's former job (as well at Scott Harshbarger's). I had heard that Jarrett Barrios was also running for this position, but I've never had this confirmed independantly. Peter Koutoujian (D-Waltham) who represents part of Watertown is also rumored to be interested in the DA's job. Festa talked a lot about how public safety should not just be concerned with punishing criminals, but also addressing root causes.

In all, I'd have to say the convention was successful in giving young Democrats a chance to network and a chance to see candidates for office at an early stage in the election cycle. It was also good to see people who wanted to get involved despite the fact that this is an off year.

Some Reactions

Here's what people are saying around the Boston media and the Internet about Deval Patrick's announcement that he's running for governor:

Blue Mass Group reports from Patrick's first post-announcement speech in Lexington yesterday.

I was impressed. I've been saying for a long time that we cannot just hand this nomination to Tom Reilly (or to anyone else, for that matter) - the nomination must be earned. That's exactly what Patrick is saying, and it's what he hopes to do. I have also said before that an "outsider" challenger like Patrick will be good for the process, good for the party, and good for whichever candidate ends up winning the nomination.

The Boston Herald editorial board welcomes Patrick into the race, presumably because this way they actually have a race to cover. Of course, they can't resist taking a swipe at state Democrats:

In this bluest of states, Republicans have controlled the Corner Office since 1990. Maybe contrarian Massachusetts voters just love divided government. Or maybe no Democrat has come up with a compelling message or a campaign that inspires. Now there's the challenge.

The Chimes at Midnight complains about Scot Lehigh's op/ed in the Globe:

Lehigh is advising Deval Patrick to look act and sound just like that ace parachutist from Utah, Mitt Romney. That would be the same Governor who is the the author & proud producer of the Commonwealth's current state of psychic humiliation and public stagnation.

Massachusetts Global Action, in a press release complains that Deval Patrick has too much "baggage" as a Coke executive. Though, to be fair, their complaints are more about the Coca-Cola company than Patrick himself.

“With his recent $2.1 million cash infusion from Coca-Cola and confidentiality agreement, we’re worried that he cannot have anything but serious conflicts of interests when it comes to water issues, labor rights, and the health of our kids.”

Attorney General and undeclared Democratic candidate Tom Reilly was quoted as welcoming Patrick's candidacy:

"I believe in competition," [Reilly] said. "Competition is good. It brings out the best in all of us."
Reilly said that he's concentrating for now on his job as the state's top law enforcement officer. But he all but declared his candidacy on the spot, saying "I made my decision -- I made it a long time ago, and I think everyone knows what it is."
"It's very early in this process, and there's a ways to go. I think folks know that when the time comes, I'll be ready for this race. I have a job, and right now I'm focused on that job," he said.

Some folks at The Daily Kos have noticed Patrick's candidacy and sparked a discussion on his merits relative to Reilly.

Left Center Left notices a striking similarity between Patrick's campaign slogan "Believe Again" and the slogan of a certain world-series champion.

Devone Tucker thinks that Patrick's sunk before he even begins after saying he's against "needless" taxes, rather than "new" taxes.