A lot is being made of this UMass poll showing Attorney General Tom Reilly with a 45%/41% (14% undecided) lead over Mitt Romney in a hypothetical (if likely) 2006 race. Kos says that Romney's well under that 50 percent "incumbent danger" line, although he said the same thing about our incumbent president and we all know how that turned out. Keep in mind, too, that in 2002 Shannon O'Brien was 12 points ahead of Romney as late as three weeks before election day. That didn't turn out so great for her either.
There are some questions in the poll that are worth talking about:
If he runs for re-election, does Romney need to give an ironclad promise not to seek higher office in 2008 or can he leave the door open for a presidential run?| Ironclad promise: | 35% |
| Leave door open: | 57% |
| Don't know/refused: | 9% |
Personally, I would have thought that more than 35% of Bay Staters would care that Romney intends to abandon Massachusetts even if reelected. This is particularly disturbing since the Democrats have long been criticizing Mitt on his absenteeism, his ambition and his commitment to state government -- in fact Dem party chair Phil Johnston responded to this poll by saying "Voters now understand that Gov. Romney considers Massachusetts just a weigh station on the road to the White House." If this poll is to be believed, voters may not find that line of attack compelling.
Also, compare the results of these two questions:
What is your opinion of Mitt Romney?| Very or somewhat favorable: | 62% |
| Not favorable: | 36% |
| Don't know: | 2% |
If Romney runs for president of the United States in 2008, would you:
| Strongly or somewhat support him: | 36% |
| Somewhat or strongly oppose him: | 50% |
| Don't know/refused: | 14% |
So, in other words, the voters like him, but don't like him like him.
|