Primary Day in MA-05

Today is primary election day for the Fifth Congressional district. There are two certainties today: one, that turnout will be very small, and two that Jim Ogonowski will win the Republican primary against challenger Tom Tierney.

Regular readers of this blog (if there are any left after my unscheduled two-week hiatus) will know that the real race is in the Democratic primary, where recent polls show Niki Tsongas with a healthy, but shrinking lead over Lowell City Councilor Eileen Donoghue, with the rest of the field a distant third, fourth and fifth. The low turnout, however, would seem to work against the frontrunner Tsongas if her opponents' supporters are more motivated to come out. Presumably, every supporter of another candidate has been contacted by one of the campaigns or is at least interested enough to follow the race. The same cannot necessarily be said of those who support the candidate with the highest name recognition. I expect, though, that Tsongas will will today's election, but perhaps by a smaller margin than predicted.

Update: Dick Howe has some preliminary information about turnout, and the unsurprising consensus is that it's going to be low. The city of Haverhill reported a total of eight absentee ballots!