Friday, August 03, 2007

GOP Candidate Starts Airing Ads

The Herald's Casey Ross notes in his Daily Briefing blog that Republican candidate Jim Ogonowski has started airing ads in his bid for the Fifth Congressional District seat. The ad itself is well done if generic, though the images in the background flash a little two quickly. I also notice that it does not mention that he's a Republican -- probably a good move in a Democratic district.

Still, the ad buy does not really make sense to me. The only reason the Democrats have aired campaign spots thus far is that they have no choice given the September 4th primary. Ogonowski does not have a primary challenge to speak of; Tom Tierney, his only opponent, doesn't even live in the district. Because of that, he has the luxury of waiting until after Labor Day to start his advertising blitz. That's when people are actually paying attention, home from vacation, and willing to think about politics. I also have to imagine that he has pretty decent name-recognition already.

Oganowski had about $112,00 on hand at the end of last month, less than any of the Democrats except for Rep. Jim Miceli. The conventional wisdom in Washington is that the National Republicans are not all that excited to dump money into what they consider a likely loss in Massachusetts, particularly since they fundraising problems of their own. When Ogonowski is down ten points in the polls come October, I imagine he'll be wishing he still had the money he spent on this ad buy over the summer.

The only way this makes sense is if this is a small ad buy, made more to get media talking about the ad than to actually pay to air it. Otherwise, I think he's jumped the gun.