One Foot Out the Door Already

This weekend was not all good news for Mitt Romney. During the Southern Republican Leadership Conference, the head of Romney's Commnweath PAC, Trent Wisecup, resigned. Here's the scoop from the Washington Post's blog:

Wisecup's departure comes as a surprise since he had decided to stay on with Romney even after the Governor parted ways with Mike Murphy -- his longtime media consultant and the founding member of DC Navigators, the consulting company in which Wisecup is a partner. A source close to the situation said that Wisecup's decision was due in large part to conflicts with Beth Myers, the governor's chief of staff. Myers is expected to play a major role in the expected Romney presidential bid.

Wisecup not only had ties to Romney's former consultant, Mike Murphy, but also was a spokesperson for Mitt's former sister-in-law, Ronna Romney, in one of her Senate bids.

In any event, every crisis is an opportunity, so Romney decided to accelerate his 2008 plans by giving responsibility for the PAC to his current spokeswoman, Julie Teer. Blue Mass. Group has the story, along with former State Democratic Communication Director Jane Lane's prediction a year ago that this is exactly why Teer was hired.

Just by way of reminder, Teer was the spokesperson for the 2004 Bush/Cheney campaign in New Hampshire, the only state that Republicans lost that year, but won in 2000. Romney is obviously not concerned about her past performance if he is putting his own presidential hopes in her hands. In any event, as Wisecup moves back to Michigan, the rumor mill has Romney following him once his term is up. After all, Mitt's familial base is there, he's got name recognition, and he's basically already told us as much.

What does this mean for us in Massachusetts? Very little. We already knew Mitt was running for president, and at least now we save some money that would have otherwise paid Teer's salary. One thing, however, that this does reveal is how little the state Republicans can expect Governor Romney to do to advance the fortunes of Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey and the Mass GOP. If Romney's planning on moving back to Michigan in January to boost his 2008 chances, how much time can he spend stumping locally?

Two Poll Weekend - One Real, One Fake

The Boston Globe announced the results of their latest poll yesterday, showing Attorney General Tom Reilly leading in the Democratic Primary and all three potential candidates coming out ahead of Republican Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey in a hypothetical general election.

The full results hold a clue as to why Deval Patrick has so much ground to make of regarding his still-low name recognition. When asked how interested respondents where in the 2006 gubernatorial election, 20% said 'extremely', 39% said 'very', and a whopping 41% said some or little. Given that people love to over-represent their civic engagement to pollsters, I think it's safe to say that half the electorate isn't really paying much attention to the race, and is not particularly interested in doing so. It's no surprise that Patrick has yet to break through to those folks. That said, Deval Patrick has gone from 0% name recognition to 50% over the course of a year when no one other than political junkies were paying attention to the gubernatorial race, which is no small feat.

Here are the splits for the Democratic candidate, Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey and Independent candidate Christy Mihos:

Tom Reilly (D) 40% Kerry Healey (R) 26% Christy Mihos (I) 15%

Deval Patrick (D) 36% Kerry Healey (R) 29% Christy Mihos (I) 13%

Chris Gabrieli, who pulled papers to run for governor as a Democrat over the weekend, polls about even with Healey, winning 31% to 30% with Mihos getting 13%. The poll is great news for state Democrats if only because Healey can't seem to break thirty percent. What's even worse for the Republicans is how many Romney votes from 2002 they lose. Here is the breakdown for only 2002 Romney voters by who they chose in this poll, for each triplet:

	Healey	Democrat	Mihos
Versus Reilly	45%	19%	21%
Versus Patrick	51%	13%	18%
Versus Gabrieli	50%	12%	19%

According to these numbers, Kerry Healey could lose as much as 40% of the 2002 Romney vote. She would gain some support from people who voted for Shannon O'Brien that year, but not nearly as much as she loses. As I've tried to show before, state Republicans must be extremely loyal to their party to be successful. If thirty to forty percent of them abandon ship on Healey and vote for either the Democrat or Christy Mihos, then they're not going to have a chance at holding on to the governor's office.

Speaking of the Governor, Mitt Romney himself was the star of a straw poll held at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference on Saturday in Memphis, Tennessee. While Senator Bill Frist won the poll of potential 2008 presidential candidates with 36.9% percent of the vote on his home turf, Governor Mitt Romney came in a surprising second with 14.4%. The results of any straw poll are generally for entertainment purposes only, and in this case Frist was accused of bussing people in to vote for him. Not only that, but Senator John McCain, who came in fourth, was urging his supporters to vote, not for him, but for President Bush, as a show of support for the President. Bush came in tied for third with 10.3% with Virginia Senator George Allen. Again, the results of this poll are not only so early as to be meaningless, but also so manipulated as to be worthless even as a snapshot of how southern Republican leaders are thinking. Still, Governor Romney's second place finish was about as good for Mitt as he could have expected. I guess all those trips to Spartanburg, SC have paid off. If we're lucky, maybe he'll stay down there.

What if You Had a Rally and Everybody Came?

Earlier today, my wife and I ventured across the river to Deval Patrick's rally at Faneuil Hall. We got there early, but not early enough, as the line was already stretched around the building and snaked around near the statue of old Sam Adams (brewer, patriot). Candidate for Secretary of State John Bonifaz was working the line, as were representatives from Deb Goldberg's Lieutenant Governor campaign (Sam Kelley was at the reception later). I overheard that the capacity of the hall was around 800, so there were at least more people than that ahead of us in the line, because we didn't get in. We were still around the corner when they told us that the fire marshall wasn't letting anyone more in the building. I had mixed feelings about that -- it was obviously great for the campaign, but it was not so great for those of us outside.

That said, the campaign did provide a simulcast for those of us outside and even though the vertical hold on one of the monitors was sub-optimal, there were several hundred people gathered around, all waiting to hear from Deval Patrick. That outside area between Faneuil Hall and Quincy Market looked like a solid wall of people from my vantage point. Not only that, but as the speech went on the crowd stayed, transfixed, and even passers-by were stopping to listen.

Here's the full text of his speech. It was a good one, I thought, and if you have a chance to read or watch the whole thing, I recommend it. Here's one of my favorite parts:

I want more than short-term band-aids. I want more than government by photo op and press release. I want real and lasting and meaningful progress. And I want you to see what I see about what's possible in Massachusetts.

And while we're at it, let's forget about labels.

Who cares whether they call a program "liberal" if it helps someone who needs help and it works. Who cares whether they call a tough fiscal judgment conservative if makes good fiscal sense.

Enough already with "the right" versus "the left." Let's focus on right versus wrong.

Despite the crowd, we ended up seeing a lot of familiar faces, and I'm happy to say that a large Watertown contingent showed up. Also there were Bill from Under the Golden Dome, who I saw, and Mass Marrier from Marry in Massachusetts, who I missed, and both of whom have already posted their impressions of the event. I also chatted with Lynne from Left in Lowell and Susan from Beyond 495, and saw Michael Forbes Wilcox from across the room at the reception, but he disappeared before I could flag him down.

In all it was a fun event, even though we couldn't get in the door. Like I said at the time, it's a great problem for a campaign to have -- too many people. Kudos to all the campaign staff and volunteers who made it happen.

Friday Roundup

Last week, I was too busy to do my usual Friday roundup, and to my surprise people actually noticed! Here is my effort to give the people what they want:

• Support Local Bloggers: Voting is open for the 2005 Koufax Awards for excellence in progressive blogging. Our own Blue Mass. Group was nominated for best local blog. If you haven't already, cast your vote for them here by just leaving a comment on that thread.


• Blame Romney?: The National Review asks whether a Healey loss hurts Mitt Romney with his presidential ambitions. Would Republican voters blame Mitt if Democrats take back the corner office? I don't think so. Republicans already think of Massachusetts as a lost cause, despite the fact we've had Republican governors for 16 years now. (via Talking Politics)


• Two Don't Miss Articles: This week's Boston Phoenix has two must-read articles on Kerry Healey. Adam Reilly asks us: should we believe Healey when she says she's a moderate? At present, Massachusetts Republicans are changing their issue stances right and left (mostly right). Witness Governor Romney and former Governor Weld who have both recently moved right as they run for president and NY governor, respectively. David Bernstein wonders why, if Healey is such a great criminologist why she hasn't stopped crime from rising? "Urban crime strategies" was one of her responsibilities as lieutenant governor, yet crime has risen in most of Massachusetts' major cities under her watch. (Via KHooT)


• LNG or Hot Air?: Yesterday's Globe featured an op-ed piece on the proposal to build LNG terminals on Outer Brewster Island. While there are good reasons to oppose the move, let's not pretend that Outer Brewster is a pristine, unspoiled paradise. The island is already home to, among other WW2-era buildings, an abandoned water-desalination plant that makes the island too dangerous for the public.


• Who?: The Boston Globe reported today that Bolton Republican Earle Stroll wants to run for State Auditor against Joseph DeNucci. Is this the first Republican candidate that's announced for a statewide office besides Governor or Lieutenant Governor?


• Anyone Else Get Polled?: Yesterday I got a call from some anonymous 'pollster' asking me who I supported at the convention for governor. They hung up abruptly as soon as I gave my answer which made me wonder which campaign they were working for. Is Gabrieli still trying to find undecideds?

It's been quite a week! What's on your mind?

Impressions From Last Night's LG Forum (Now With Audio)

I didn't get a chance last night to comment on the Lieutenant Governor forum I went to yesterday, so I'll just briefly give my impressions. First of all, I just want to say that I think all four candidates are great, and they all bring their own unique strengths to the ticket. Thanks to the Harvard Dems for putting it on. The forum was moderated by former New Hampshire Governor Jeanne Shaheen, but I thought she was kind of wasted. All she did was ask a couple of questions that the students provided her in advance and then pick people out of the audience during the Q & A session.

This is the first time I've heard Deborah Goldberg since Tim Murray joined the race, and she seems to be going for a 'jack-of-all-trades' approach. She played up her experience in business and creating jobs while at Stop & Shop, moved on to talking about her experience as a Brookline Selectman and how cities and towns were suffering, and explained that the most important issue we face is the health care crisis. It seemed to me that she's trying to present herself as a blend of the best of the other three candidates.

As for Sam Kelley, I'm glad he's out there forcing people to talk about health care. I also find his demeanor very calming, but at the same time you can tell he has a lot of passion for his topic.

Andrea Silbert summed up her campaign as "jobs, jobs, jobs," stressing her work as founder of the Center for Women & Enterprise. One thing that Silbert pointed out is that the Massachusetts Lieutenant Governor has practically no job description, so she thought that an entrepreneurial LG could really make a difference. Frankly, though, I'm skeptical because the reality of the situation is that as LG she could really only do whatever the Governor lets her. That said, having someone on the Democratic ticket who's all jobs, all the time would be great given that the GOP has settled on a law-and-order ticket.

Worcester Mayor Tim Murray, as usual, had a big presence. He focused on the budget cuts that cities and towns have faced in the past few years. One example he gave was with funding for MCAS tutoring and how it's gone from $50 million to $12 or $13 million under this administration. Murray pointed out that Healey likes to hold herself as the state's liaison for cities and towns, yet under her they are really struggling.

Here is the complete audio. I thought about breaking it up into several files, but I'll leave that as an exercise for the reader. The file is huge, though, and I'd appreciate it if you want to listen if you'd save it to your machine rather than play it off the server. Also, it cuts off during Sam Kelley's last answer to the last question. Most of the forum is there, though.

Back From the LG Forum

I just got back from the Democratic Lieutenant Governor forum sponsored by the Harvard Dems. It was a great event and I managed to get almost all of it on tape. I'll break it up into mp3s and put it somewhere on the web if there's any interest. The room was small, but it was pretty crowded, and a bunch of Harvard Undergrads liveblogged the whole debate. I actually brought my laptop, but alas no wireless access for non-students. Check out their impressions to tide you over until I can get the audio up.

Healey's LG Picks Down to Three

The Globe reports today that Kerry Healey has narrowed down her possible lieutenant governor picks to a list of three. Among them are two everyone expected, Senator Scott Brown (R-Wrentham) and US Attorney Michael Sullivan, and one who was not on the radar screen -- former state representative Reed V. Hillman (R-Sturbridge). Hillman left his seat in 2004 and was replaced by his legislative aid, Republican rep Todd Smola (R-Palmer). Hillman has also been colonel of the State Police and was nominated by Governor Romney to be US Marshal for Massachusetts. Should Healey pick Hillman, it would seem to indicate a strong focus for her campaign on criminal justice and crime issues. Here's what he had to say to the Globe:

Asked what his areas of concentration would be if he were elected lieutenant governor, Hillman named public safety, homeland security, and disaster preparedness. He said he was concerned about the environment and would work on that issue at the State House.

Hillman has positions similar to Healey's on several hot-button social issues. He said he supports a woman's right to choose abortion in the first trimester of pregnancy and supports civil unions for same-sex couples.

Kerry Healey -- Out of Touch had a great post yesterday handicapping the GOP LG sweepstakes. Somehow even they missed Hillman, despite listing just about every Massachusetts Republican left.

New Poll Shows Mihos Competitive

There's a new CBS4/SurveyUSA poll on the governor's race out (via CBS4's brand new Keller@Large blog). There are a whole lot of interesting issues with it, but the most striking one is how high independent-turned-Republican Christy Mihos polls. Here are the high-level results:

Kerry Healey	35%
Deval Patrick	30%
Christy Mihos	20%

Tom Reilly	36%
Kerry Healey	31%
Christy Mihos	22%

I don't really have enough time to dig deep into the results, but here are a couple of quick things about the poll. First of all, according the blurb, "when Reilly is the Democrat, Reilly leads among women by 15 points. When Patrick is the Democrat, Patrick trails among women by 1 point, a 16-point difference." I'm not sure that this gender gap is something that we'll see on election day, after everything plays out, but it's not great news for Deval Patrick. That said, you have to remember that this poll is of all registered voters, and not of likely voters. Figuring out who is likely to vote is, of course, as much art as science, but this early out, it's hard to predict what will happen on election day when you include people who are less likely to be paying attention to the race. That is, name recognition plays a much larger role now before the campaigning has begun in earnest. That Mihos was able to make such a strong showing even under these conditions is very interesting.

The experts remain to be convinced of Mihos' chances, however. Even some of his own friends have doubts, according to the Herald:

"We want our independent candidates to be mavericks, but not too maverick," said political consultant and Mihos friend Scott Ferson. "Ross Perot was a breath of fresh air - until he was crazy."

Politics on the Web: Good Advice Bears Repeating

This weekend I attended the Democratic Campaign Institute in Worcester, put on by the state party. I thought it was really a great event, and not just because I spend most of the time causing trouble with Susan from Beyond 495 and Andy from Mass Revolution Now. Presentations varied from advice on how to get people to Democratic Town Meetings to messaging, to canvassing. I was actually most impressed by the presentations from the DNC, which they gave us on a CD, and may try to see if I can put up without violating any sort of terms of service. If not, I'll try to summarize them later for those that couldn't attend.

The last presentation I attended, though, was hosted in part by David from Blue Mass. Group, and was billed as a "Politics and the Web" session. It turned into mostly a primer on the state party's website and on BMG. Susan, who brought her laptop even liveblogged it.

One thing that I wish we had more time to talk about, however, was how campaigns can leverage the Internet in general and the still-emerging progressive Massachusetts blogosphere in particular. Last August, I wrote a post about a report on the Emergence of the Progressive Blogosphere which was put together by Chris Bowers of MyDD and Matt Stoller, then of Blogging of the President, but who is now also at MyDD.

For the benefit of those who were not reading my blog at the time, I'm going to compound the Internet faux pas I made in August by again reproducing the entire Appendix I from the full report. If the number of people who crowded themselves into a conference room of a Worcester hotel is any indication, there are a lot of people who are interested in this subject. I'm sure that Bowers and Stoller won't mind if I highlight their excellent work once again. Here, again, is the advice that they have for local campaigns on how to encourage participation with local blogs:

The power of a single blog is relatively small -- it is the interlinking of blogs into a larger 'blogosphere' that is meaningful. To harness this power and use it to drive message, money and activism, you must invest in organizing this constituency. One cannot e-mail large national bloggers and expect their attention on local candidates or issues. Instead, you need to create your own blogosphere out of existing small and locally focused blogs, and invest time interacting with local online communities. This structure will in the end be of much more use to you. It is important to remember at all times that bloggers are both campaign activists, and a sort of journalist. They can be your friends, but are also third-party observers of your campaign. Here are some tips on interacting with these unique communities:

1. Hire a 'Netroots Coordinator' and be prepared to work with him or her on money, messaging and organizing. Most organizations hire one and relegate them to a position where they are asked simply to raise money. If you follow this model it is not worth engaging the blogs. A good Netroots Coordinator can deliver messaging, media, and money.
2. Put up a link on your web site that says 'Got a blog?' Ask for bloggers to give you their name, email, IM, and blog address. This list is valuable -- it is the list of bloggers who are interested in your issue.
3. Take your list of bloggers and add them to your press release list. Call through to introduce yourself, and invite them to cover events, and if possible give them press passes and access.
4. Read the blogs who sign up. If you use an 'aggregator' such as www.bloglines.com, you can read many more blogs much more quickly. Get a sense of who is on your side and who is not. Go into the comment section of various blogs and add comments when relevant.
5. Hold conference calls with your strategists/candidate. Treat bloggers like friends and allies, but also realize you are on the record.
6. Periodically do a 'blog round-up' where you email interesting blog posts on your issue to all the bloggers as well as internally.
7. Link to interesting blog posts from your web site/blog; make sure you link to a few posts that disagree with you. This will lend your online presence more credibility.
8. Listen and respond to criticism. These are your friends and often not that experienced in politics -- treat them like they are here to learn, not like they are cynical, hard-boiled reporters.

Like I said at the time, as more and more people get access to the Internet, it will be more important for candidates and advocacy groups to get involved. Local bloggers are going to be important for spreading messages that large national blogs, and sometimes even the local mainstream media, aren't going to be interested in. Thanks to Google, people are searching for this information that they can't seem to get elsewhere and finding it on the blogs. If campaigns are smart, they will engage bloggers to make sure that their side of the story is being presented in as many venues as possible.

Question of the Day

Would Jeff Jacoby have written the same column if the Church had decided that placing children for adoption by Jewish parents was tantamount to "doing violence to them"?

We have to draw the line between protecting religious freedoms and protecting people's individual rights. I'm curious as to where Jacoby draws that line.

Electoral Math Revisited

In today's State House News Weekly Roundup (link will expire), reporter Craig Sandler does the math, and with Christy Mihos in the picture, things do not look good for Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey and the Massachusetts Republican party.

If Kerry Healey wins 85 percent of the Republican vote in November, and 15 percent of the Democratic vote, she'll have 16.6 percent of the total vote. To win 50.1 percent of the total vote Nov. 7, she'll have to earn 68.9 percent of the independent vote. This relies on the very reasonable assumption that the electorate will retain its 49 percent-independent, 38 percent-Democrat, 13 percent-Republican composition.

This sounds like a remarkably formidable feat - yet no Republican has failed to accomplish it in the past two decades, and no Democrat has managed to muster the paltry 35 percent among independents needed to win.

Sandler's math is right, but his assumptions are not necessarily as reasonable as he thinks. Readers of my blog know that according to exit polls, Republicans turn out at greater rates than Democrats or independents. In 2002, the composition of the electorate was 42 percent-independent, 38 percent-Democrat and 19 percent-Republican. You may think that this is a small difference, but it actually makes his second paragraph false. Again, according to exit polls in 1998, Scott Harshbarger got 37% among independents, higher than the 35% that Sandler thinks is enough for a Democratic victory. This discrepancy is due to the higher than expected levels of Republican turnout. In addition, Sandler overestimates the number of Democrats who have historically been willing to vote for the Republican. Again, in 1998, only three-out-of-four Democrats voted for the Democrat, not the 85% that he predicts. Now, of course, it's true that I'm basing all these results on exit polls, but the turnout pattern is similar in both 1998 and 2002, so either the exit polls were wrong in both years (and the 2004 presidential election), or we can assume that GOP turnout is better than what might be predicted just using the numbers of registered voters.

That said, the fact is that if Mihos becomes a credible candidate, the math does not look good for Republicans. By my estimates, the largest subgroup of voters in 2002 was Democratic voters who voted for Shannon O'Brien (28% of the electorate). The second largest bloc was unenrolled voters who voted for Mitt Romney (25% of the electorate). If that bloc splits with Mihos peeling off only a fifth of them (5% of the electorate) then, all else being equal, the Democrat will win.

Will Mihos Destroy the State Republican Party?

Will Ash Wednesday, 2006, be known as the day the Massachusetts GOP self-immolated? Now that Christy Mihos is running as an independent, the GOP looks like it may lose the one foothold it has left in state politics -- the governor's office. Without the governorship, and since they do not seem to be running any other credible candidates for statewide offices, the state GOP will be almost entirely without influence on Beacon Hill -- a tiny coalition of legislators. Now, it's a long way until November, and there's plenty of time for scandals, or for the candidates to come down with foot-in-mouth disease, but after yesterday it just got more difficult for Republicans to win back the corner office.

Let me explain, because some people are skeptical. I am not saying that the Democrats are now guaranteed victory in November. It is possible that Christy Mihos might win, and it's still not impossible (though I think it's unlikely) that Kerry Healey could win. Here's what I want to stress. The Republicans have been winning the governorship with a coalition of registered Republicans, anti-tax independents and disaffected Democrats. While Healey is likely to get the vote of the Republicans, there aren't that many of them, when compared with the size of the other two groups combined. Those independents and Democrats are just as likely to vote for Healey as Mihos (assuming he runs a credible campaign, which is not a given either). The point I'm trying to make is that Mihos breaks up the Republican's coalition. To my mind, that means that Healey will have great difficulty winning in November. The question for the Democrats is to what extent does the entry of Mihos break up our coalition? Mihos will, polls show, take votes from the Democratic candidate, but it remains to be seen if he and Healey will end up taking more votes beyond those already predisposed to vote against the Democrat (about one out of four votes in 1998).

The question I have, and that we'll all find out come Novemeber, is whether Mihos will be a Ross Perot (1996) or a Jesse Ventura (1998). If he's a Perot, he'll manage a few percentage points from disaffected voters, but won't end up changing the outcome of the election. If he's a Ventura, he'll end up squeaking by both the Republican and the Democrat, and muddle through four tumultuous years before declining to run for a second term. I can't see him as being successful as a governor, if only because of what Scott Brown said on NECN last night: he has no political base now. Republicans aren't going to want to work with him after this betrayal, and if he really is a Republican by temperament, the Democrats in the legislature can just ignore him.

On another note, the Herald is reporting that five members of his campaign team resigned yesterday. True, they weren't resigning in protest of his running as an independent, they were resigning because he was "unmanageable". Most of those that left are now supporting Kerry Healey. There is a danger that Mihos has, running as an independent, that he will not be seen as a candidate with a realistic chance of winning. If he spends a ton of money, he can help mitigate this, but if people end up thinking that this is a third-party vanity candidacy, he may not be able to break out of Green Party or Libertarian turnout in November.

Mihos To Run as an Independent

The Globe is now reporting that Christy Mihos is running for governor as an Independent. He's expected to formally announce this tomorrow.

That sound you hear is the Massachusetts Republican party whimpering.

Gov. Romney Will Say Anything

Today, Blue Mass. Group links to a Herald Article wherein Governor Mitt Romney claims he would sign South Dakota's abortion ban into law. His spokesperson says it's because "The governor believes that states should have the right to be pro-life if that is the will of the people," although David points out that if Romney really wanted the will of the people represented, then why has he been so quick to use his own veto power? Don't forget that some of Romney's vetoes were overruled unanimously.

But that's not even the part of this that bothers me the most. It's clear now, if it wasn't before, that Governor Mitt Romney will say absolutely anything if he thinks it will help him get elected. In 1994, he was pro-choice when running against Ted Kennedy. In 2002 there "wasn't a dime's worth of difference" (Kerry Healey's own words) between his position on reproductive rights and that of Shannon O'Brien. And now, even though last year he denied he was "faking" his position as pro-choice, he now says that if an abortion ban -- one with no exceptions for rape, incest, or the health of the mother, mind you -- appeared on his desk, he'd sign it. He'd do this again despite his reassurances last year that he promised to "maintain the laws as they exist in Massachusetts". In fact, if I recall correctly, this promise to maintain these laws was one of the reasons he gave in vetoing the stem cell bill. He was more concerned about keeping his promise to keep the abortion status quo that he vetoed a bill that had nothing to do with abortion, despite the "will of the people" clearly being against him.

Check out this post from Romney is a Fraud from last year that has a fully annotated collection of Mitt Romney's rhetoric on choice up until that point. It's stunning how brazenly he's turned around on this.