Pre-Primary Thoughts

• I finally got a chance to read Governor Patrick's endorsement of Barack Obama in Saturday's Boston Globe. I know that Patrick and Obama have similar messages (and share consultants), but I feel like Deval just did a search and replace on one of his 2006 stump speeches to come up with that Op/Ed. Anyone who followed his 2006 campaign should recognize some of his stock phrases -- "wise guys and wise gals", "not buying what either party is selling." I guess if it ain't broke, don't fix it.
• Will Mitt Romney finally be off of my TV screen after tomorrow? The New Hampshire polls have him down, and the national polls have him even lower. If he doesn't get the bandwagon boost from a win there, can he carry enough states on Super-Duper Tuesday to get the nomination? Seems like a tall order.
• Bill Galvin is right. The primary process is even crazier than last time. I'd like to see regional primaries as well, but what are the chances that New Hampshire and Iowa would give up their positions? The parties had a hard enough time this year getting the states to wait until after Feburary, and we'll likely see that their threats to refuse to seat delegates to the convention will be empty.

Good News From the North

Via Political Wire, American Research Group released a poll today showing former New Hampshire Governor and current director of the Kennedy School's Institute of Politics Jeanne Shaheen thumping incumbent New Hampshire Senator John Sununu in a rematch of their 2002 race by a margin of 57% to 29% with 14% undecided. Check out the by-party numbers:

	Shaheen	Sununu	Undecided
Republicans	30%	61%	9%
Democrats	96%	1%	3%
Undeclared	50%	25%	25%

Shaheen not only gets virtually every Democrat, but even thirty percent of Republicans are, at this early point, so turned off of Sununu that they plan to vote for his opponent! That's incredible.

Now, the usual caveats apply. It's an early poll and doesn't reflect what's likely to happen over the course of a campaign and furthermore Shaheen has not yet even announced her intention to run, and it's an open question whether she will. Still, seeing these numbers, I'd be surprised if she didn't try to take a little revenge at the guy who beat her (by cheating) five years ago.