The July numbers for the bi-monthly State House News Poll are out and they're quite interesting. The big story is that Governor Romney really is out of step with the majority of Massachusetts residents on stem cell research and emergency contraception. In addition, Romney's favorability ratings continue to outpace support for re-election. That is, his favorability rating stands at 55%, but the highest he polls against any challenger is 49.9% (against Deval Patrick).
Here are the head-to-head poll results, with the May results in parentheses.
If the candidates in next year's general election for governor were Mitt Romney / [CHALLENGER] and the election were being held tomorrow, for whom would you vote??The bad news is that Mitt Romney's numbers have gone up across the board while the Democratic challengers' numbers have stayed roughly the same. Tom Reilly is still ahead, but his lead is now within the margin of error. Bill Galvin doesn't do quite as well as Reilly, and where he was beating, or at least tied with Romney, he now does measurably worse. Deval Patrick's own numbers remain roughly the same as in past polls, but here Romney gets his highest percentage of any of the head-to-head matchups. Here's a graph of how the Democrats have been doing against Romney:
Challenger Romney Don't Know Neither Bill Galvin 40.2% (41.91%) 48.8% (40.7%) 7.3%% (11.2%) 3.4% (6.2%) Deval Patrick 35.1% (33.6%) 49.9% (45.8%) 9.5% (12.9%) 5.4% (7.6%) Tom Reilly 47.1% (48.3%) 44.0% (37.8%) 6.2% (7.7%) 2.7% (6.3%)
The most troubling thing that I see in this poll is the Democratic poll numbers for Deval Patrick, Mike Capuano and even Bill Galvin. Here's the breakdown of the percentage of Democrats voting for the candidate:
Of course, the above numbers may become meaningless if, as looks likely, Governor Romney declines to run in 2006. So, here are the poll results for the Democratic primary, along with the time series results for March and May: